Early 2026 F1 Prediction: Zak Brown Sees Mercedes as the Favorite
As Formula 1 heads toward the 2026 season and a brand-new technical era, teams are ramping up preparations. McLaren CEO Zak Brown has shared his early championship outlook following the shakedown tests in Barcelona. Based on current data, Brown believes Mercedes appears to be the strongest contender for the upcoming season.
During the Barcelona tests, Mercedes’ new-generation W17 was put through an intensive program by George Russell and rising talent Kimi Antonelli. The duo completed a combined 502 laps, gathering crucial data on performance and reliability. On the final evening of testing, Lewis Hamilton set the fastest lap time, reinforcing the impression that Mercedes has made a strong start under the new regulations.
Brown noted that Mercedes had long been considered a favorite heading into the new rule cycle, and the early testing results seem to support that view. However, he emphasized that McLaren also remains competitive. Despite Oscar Piastri’s test being disrupted by a fuel system issue, the team still sees itself firmly in the leading group.
Speaking at the opening of the McLaren Racing Centre in Indianapolis, Brown summarized the current competitive picture:
“It looks like a big four right now, but it’s hard to predict the exact order. If you were placing a bet in Las Vegas today, Mercedes would look like the favorite. But there’s still a long way to go.”
Brown also highlighted that performance gaps are likely to widen at the start of a new technical cycle. He pointed out that limited running for teams like Williams and Aston Martin in Barcelona means the full competitive picture has yet to emerge. While the entire grid was separated by roughly one second in Abu Dhabi last year, Brown suggested that gap could grow to two or even three seconds early in 2026.
Meanwhile, Red Bull’s performance with its new Red Bull Powertrains–Ford engine partnership has been an unexpected highlight. Brown admitted he was surprised by the strength of Red Bull’s new power unit, calling it a “pleasant surprise.”
“The Red Bull engine looked very strong. I’d have preferred them to be less competitive, of course, but I’m impressed with what they’ve done. They ran a lot of laps and looked very competitive.”
Looking ahead, Brown believes energy management and battery usage strategies will play a crucial role in shaping the new era of Formula 1. He suggested that FIA regulations may need fine-tuning as teams and governing bodies better understand the new systems. Despite the uncertainties, Brown maintains that Mercedes currently holds a slight edge as the team to beat heading into 2026.
With sweeping technical changes and shifting performance dynamics, the 2026 Formula 1 season is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable and exciting in recent years.
